Sean Murphy
Jan 1, 2025
"Crypto Bull Run"
Understanding Crypto Bull-Runs
Bull-Run Origins
With the re-election of Trump on November 5th, we saw an immediate surge in crypto prices. Most significantly we saw Bitcoin (BTC) rise from 67k to 90k in the week after he was elected. Ethereum also ran up from 2.4k to 3.4k in the week following the election. Solana (SOL) also ripped from 156 to 225 in the same time. Lastly, XRP from 0.05 to 0.74. Trump made it very clear that he was going to deregulate the crypto space, and especially by firing SEC chairman Gary Gensler who has launched lawsuits against cryptocurrencies, most significantly XRP. It’s clear that Trump’s election and Trump’s continuous support of crypto sets a clear origin of this cycle's bull-run.
How Do Crypto Cycles Work?
Crypto cycles have moved in clear repeated patterns that will continue to hold up. First BTC will rip past All Time Highs (ATH) and then there will be a large sell off of whales taking their profits. Then ETH will rip past ATH before whales take their profits, moving into high cap coins. Then they move to low caps, and then finally it's meme coin season. Typically these cycles happen about once every 4 years, so either Trump’s election either sparked this to happen earlier, or there is still much left in this bull-run.
Current Market Conditions
Currently Bitcoin is sitting around six figures and a nearly two trillion dollar market cap. Along with this Ethereum sits at around $3,500 with a 420 billion dollar market cap. Understanding that BTC is past ATH and ETH is yet to touch them, you can tell how early we are in our cycle.
What Does the Future Look Like?
Trump is still yet to take office and we cannot be sure as to exactly how this will affect the crypto market, but we can be sure that Trump taking office will not hurt the market. The question would rather be: How far will this go? Also important in the appointment of Elon Musk. Musk is an even bigger supporter of crypto and is tasked with heading the Department of Government Efficiency or D.O.G.E. for short. Are you kidding? I promise Musk’s new department’s acronym being DOGE was not a coincidence. Along with Musk's support of crypto, his new department not only will be called DOGE, but also will be set out to reduce government spending as much as possible. We have seen Musk do this before after purchasing Twitter and reducing the amount of employees by 80% and still running the same. This is fantastic for crypto because the less government spending and less regulation gives crypto the room to grow and become bigger and more useful.
Our Outlook (ETH)
Being relatively early in the Bull-Run there is still plenty of time to still get in. Bitcoin remaining past previous all time highs makes it riskier to invest in as it is hard to predict where price will peak. However Bitcoins younger cousin Etherum remains plenty below all time highs with plenty of room left to grow. The price target for ETH is $5,000 with plenty of space left to continue after that. Personally, we are buying Ethereum now with a partial take profit in the 4,600-5,000 range. We will continue to hold based on the momentum ETH is showing. By the end of the bull-run, we are predicting a peak price in the range of $6-7,000.